According to some doomsday scenarios, spiking gas prices could turn the cul-de-sacs and two-car garages that surround North America’s cities - built over the past 60 years and designed for the convenience of people with cars - into tomorrow’s slums.

The predictions for the most part come from subscribers to the theory of “peak oil,” which holds that crude prices will shoot permanently upward as global demand outstrips dwindling supply, ruining the economy. But their predictions are getting a second look now, as suburbanites, especially in the United
States, grumble at the rising price of a fill-up.

Some warn the cost of gasoline will make the most sprawling U.S. suburbs so unattractive that housing values there will collapse, forcing many people to abandon their homes for urban areas better served by public transit and leaving only squatters, criminals and those who can’t afford to leave the outskirts. Could it happen in Canada? Many experts doubt that gas prices, while bound to rise, will shoot up so suddenly as to strangle the suburbs, which do not sprawl to the extent that many do in the U.S. But it is clear that a shift away from the traditional suburb is also under way in Canada. Suburban municipal
governments are scrambling to retrofit sprawl with denser development and better public transit to keep people moving, responding to concerns not just about the rising price of gas, but also about carbon
emissions and traffic congestion.

Evidence that the suburbs are under siege as oil prices skyrocket is easy to find. In a recent essay in the Atlantic Monthly entitled The Next Slum?, Christopher Leinberger writes that the slide of many U.S. suburbs goes deeper than that country’s subprime mortgage crisis. Mr. Leinberger is a real-estate developer, a professor of urban planning at the University of Michigan and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, a liberal think tank.

While foreclosures caused by the mortgage meltdown have left, in Florida’s Lee County, one in every four homes empty, Mr. Leinberger argues that a profound shift is taking place, driven by demographics, lifestyle changes and gas prices, as people choose urban, denser areas friendly to walking, cycling and public transit.

According to one study he cites, by 2025 the U.S. could have a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes, or about 40 per cent of the stock that exists now.

“For 60 years, Americans have pushed steadily into the suburbs, transforming the landscape and (until recently) leaving cities behind,” he writes. “But today the pendulum is swinging back toward urban living, and there are many reasons to believe this swing will continue. As it does, many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s - slums characterized by poverty, crime and decay.”

Although U.S. house prices have fallen dramatically - in many areas as much as 20 per cent - the worst- hit neighbourhoods have been those outside urban centres, while prices in denser neighbourhoods have either not fallen as fast or have continued to rise, according to recent studies by economists.

Richard Gilbert, a transportation and energy consultant and former Toronto city councillor, believes changes are on the way for the suburbs, but says many people will simply adapt to paying more for gas, giving up luxuries instead.

“As far as possible, people will keep on with the life that they have,” he said. “They won’t flee the suburbs because gas goes up to $2 a litre. But over time … you will see … a weaker inclination to live there.” Trying to improve public transit across Toronto’s suburbs is the task set for Metrolinx, the new regional authority created by the province and governed by a board of mostly municipal politicians. It is expected next month to release a draft long-range transportation plan that could include billions of dollars in public transit along with controversial measures such as road tolls.

Metrolinx board member Paul Bedford, former chief planner for the City of Toronto, says suburban residents will need to wrap their minds around a more urban lifestyle, taking public transit more often and living with denser development around them.

“So many people I know, probably two generations, have grown up in the suburbs,” he said. “All they’ve known in their life is a subdivision, two or three cars and shopping at the mall. They don’t know any other life.”

In the Vancouver area, where sprawl is less dramatic, the debate has been driven not just by gas prices, but also by B.C.’s new carbon tax, which takes effect July 1, said Cheeying Ho, executive director of Smart Growth B.C., a non-governmental organization.

Both the carbon tax and rising gas prices “will definitely influence how development is moving forward, and how suburbs get recreated, redeveloped and retrofitted,” she said. “There’s going to be a lot more focus on making suburban communities more complete and compact.”

Brian Pincott, an environmental activist and theatre lighting designer who won a city council seat in Calgary last year, says the city used to be in denial about its sprawl, but is now at least planning for denser growth.

“Our pattern of growth is unsustainable,” he said. “There is broad recognition of that.”

Waiting for one of York Region’s new Viva rapid transit buses north of Toronto, Andrew Snider, 22, said it will take gas prices of at least $1.60 a litre before he contemplates giving up driving. When he can borrow his mother’s car, driving from his suburban Richmond Hill home to his courses at York University takes just 30 minutes, compared with 90 minutes on the bus, he said.

“Fuel prices are out of control, but for my time, I can justify the fuel expense,” he said. “… My car is still the better choice, unfortunately.”

[The Globe and Mail]

Yes, the times they are a changing, and we humans seem to be adapting. The question is, do we have the leadership necessary in Surrey to make sure our city makes the vital infrastructure modifications necessary to transform from a Vancouver suburb into our very own bustling, eclectic, vibrant urban oasis? 

The provincial government has legislated that all public sector organizations, including government ministries, school districts, health authorities, post-secondary institutions and Crown corporations achieve carbon neutrality by 2010! Of course, with such a short in which to develop and implement plans to become carbon neutral, this is putting huge strain on our public institutions. 

While municipalities aren’t legislated, Surrey, in addition to 122 other cities across BC, have signed onto the Climate Action Charter, which states that the signatories will achieve carbon neutrality by 2012. 

I should hope that the Sustainability Charter that the City continues to refine and develop will work towards this goal - otherwise, without such markers, it’s hard to gage where the heck we are attempting to go and what progress we are making. 

I understand that it will be a hard goal to accomplish, and I realize that it is expedient to push aside these commitments, but we should embrace this challenge, together as a city, as an opportunity to become a more sustainable society. 

Take a look at the 7 groundbreaking goals San Francisco has taken to achieve carbon neutrality:

• Climate Action: Reduce San Francisco’s contribution to global climate change to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2012
• Clean Transportation: Reduce CO2 emissions from transportation by 963,000 tons annually
• Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency: Reduce 400,000 tons of CO2 annually through energy efficiency and to displace 3,000 tons of CO2 annually through development of renewable energy resources by 2009
• Zero Waste: Achieve 75 percent landfill diversion by 2010 and zero waste by 2020
• Urban Forest: Plant and maintain 25,000 new trees in San Francisco by 2012, offsetting 2,500,000 pounds of CO2 annually
• Green Building: Ensure that all new commercial and residential buildings in San Francisco eventually meet LEED Gold Standard 

Some of the policies and strategies they are either developing or have in place to achieve these goals include:

• Creating a San Francisco Carbon Fund for local green activities designed to mitigate of “offset” greenhouse gas emissions
• Developing framework for a Carbon Tax, which may serve as an alternative to payroll taxes for San Francisco businesses
• Provide subsidies and loans to homeowners and businesses that install solar panels
• Develop legislation requiring the residential Multiple Listing Service to include a green rating for properties for sale
• Include bicycle-sharing options in new bus shelter programs
• Introduce variable pricing, possibly via legislation, for parking, city garages, and transit
• Develop legislation requiring all service stations in San Francisco to offer a biofuel alternative, in addition to conventional fossil fuels
• Incorporate green building principles into citywide planning and development processes
• Ensure municipal buildings meet LEED Silver standards
• Streamline the permitting processes and provide other assistance to encourage private sector construction and remodeling projects to meet LEED standards
• Mandate participation in diversion programs for all sectors, including banning materials, such as yard trimmings, from disposal
• Require adequate and convenient space for recycling and composting in all buildings
• Development of urban farms, community gardens, and schoolyard gardens to teach adults and children about nutritional and health benefits of growing and eating fresh produce

When Shaun Yandell proposed to his longtime girlfriend Gina Marasco on the doorstep of their new home in the sunny suburb of Elk Grove, California, four years ago, he never imagined things would get this bad. But they did, and it happened almost overnight.

“It is going to be heartbreak,” Yandell told CNN. “But we are hanging on.”

Yandell’s marriage isn’t falling apart: his neighborhood is.

Devastated by the subprime mortgage crisis, hundreds of homes have been foreclosed and thousands of residents have been forced to move, leaving in their wake a not-so-pleasant path of empty houses, unkempt lawns, vacant strip malls, graffiti-sprayed desolate sidewalks and even increased crime.

In Elk Grove, some homeowners not only cut their own grass but also trim the yards of vacant homes on their streets, hoping to deter gangs and criminals from moving in.

Other residents discovered that with some of the empty houses, it wasn’t what was growing outside that was the problem. Susan McDonald, president of a local neighborhood association aimed at saving the lost suburban paradise, told CNN that around her cul-de-sac, federal agents recently busted several pot homes with vast crops of marijuana growing from floor to ceiling.

And only a couple of weeks ago, Yandell said he overheard a group of teenagers gathered on the street outside his back patio, talking about a robbery they had just committed.

When they lit a street sign on fire, Yandell called the cops.

“This is not like a rare thing anymore,” he said. “I get big congregations of people cussing — stuff I can’t even fathom doing when I was a kid.”

For Yandell, his wife and many other residents trying to stick it out, the white picket fence of an American dream has faded into a seemingly hopeless suburban nightmare. “The forecast is gloomy,” he told CNN.

While the foreclosure epidemic has left communities across the United States overrun with unoccupied houses and overgrown grass, underneath the chaos another trend is quietly emerging that, over the next several decades, could change the face of suburban American life as we know it.

This trend, according to Christopher Leinberger, an urban planning professor at the University of Michigan and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, stems not only from changing demographics but also from a major shift in the way an increasing number of Americans — especially younger generations — want to live and work.

“The American dream is absolutely changing,” he told CNN.

This change can be witnessed in places like Atlanta, Georgia, Detroit, Michigan, and Dallas, Texas, said Leinberger, where once rundown downtowns are being revitalized by well-educated, young professionals who have no desire to live in a detached single family home typical of a suburbia where life is often centered around long commutes and cars.

Instead, they are looking for what Leinberger calls “walkable urbanism” — both small communities and big cities characterized by efficient mass transit systems and high density developments enabling residents to walk virtually everywhere for everything — from home to work to restaurants to movie theaters.

The so-called New Urbanism movement emerged in the mid-90s and has been steadily gaining momentum, especially with rising energy costs, environmental concerns and health problems associated with what Leinberger calls “drivable suburbanism” — a low-density built environment plan that emerged around the end of the World War II and has been the dominant design in the U.S. ever since.

Thirty-five percent of the nation’s wealth, according to Leinberger, has been invested in constructing this drivable suburban landscape.

But now, Leinberger told CNN, it appears the pendulum is beginning to swing back in favor of the type of walkable community that existed long before the advent of the once fashionable suburbs in the 1940s. He says it is being driven by generations molded by television shows like “Seinfeld” and “Friends,” where city life is shown as being cool again — a thing to flock to, rather than flee.

“The image of the city was once something to be left behind,” said Leinberger.

Changing demographics are also fueling new demands as the number of households with children continues to decline. By the end of the next decade, the number of single-person households in the United States will almost equal those with kids, Leinberger said.

And aging baby boomers are looking for a more urban lifestyle as they downsize from large homes in the suburbs to more compact town houses in more densely built locations.

Recent market research indicates that up to 40 percent of households surveyed in selected metropolitan areas want to live in walkable urban areas, said Leinberger. The desire is also substantiated by real estate prices for urban residential space, which are 40 to 200 percent higher than in traditional suburban neighborhoods — this price variation can be found both in cities and small communities equipped with walkable infrastructure, he said.

The result is an oversupply of depreciating suburban housing and a pent-up demand for walkable urban space, which is unlikely to be met for a number of years. That’s mainly, according to Leinberger, because the built environment changes very slowly; and also because governmental policies and zoning laws are largely prohibitive to the construction of complicated high-density developments.

But as the market catches up to the demand for more mixed use communities, the United States could see a notable structural transformation in the way its population lives — Arthur C. Nelson, director of Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute, estimates, for example, that half of the real-estate development built by 2025 will not have existed in 2000.

Yet Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.

The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.

“What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe,” said Nelson. “There will probably be 10 people living in one house.”

In Shaun Yandell’s neighborhood, this has already started to happen. Houses once filled with single families are now rented out by low-income tenants. Yandell speculates that they’re coming from nearby Sacramento, where the downtown is undergoing substantial gentrification, or perhaps from some other area where prices have gotten too high. He isn’t really sure.

But one thing Yandell is sure about is that he isn’t going to leave his sunny suburban neighborhood unless he has to, and if that happens, he says he would only want to move to another one just like it.

“It’s the American dream, you know,” he said. “The American dream.”

[via CNN]

Just like to point out walkable, vibrant, denser communities linked together by quick, comfortable, and convenient public transit and physically separated cycling routes is my platform in a nutshell. Plus, as we build taller rather than out, we can preserve, and maybe even regain, land as natural green space.

Very interesting to learn also that 40% of people surveyed desired walkable urbanism. That certainly is pent up demand, and I am absolutely convinced that once people start discovering such a lifestyle in Surrey, the demand will skyrocket out here too.  

There’s a ton of reasons we are currently facing a housing affordability crisis in the Vancouver area, and I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t completely understand all the factors. One of the biggest reasons, I strongly believe, is due to high international demand to move to the region - I mean, we are, after all, the world’s most liveable city.

The City of Victoria has done some research, all of it covered in this PDF, asking two questions about rental housing:

1. Why isn’t rental housing being built?
2. What needs to change?

Here’s a quick summary of their findings.

Given that it is the City of Victoria that is looking for answers, most of the discussions
concentrated on municipal policies. It was pointed out that the City can do only three things to
encourage more rental housing:

• increase density;
• reduce red tape;
• reduce taxes.

Many of the recommendations flow from this fact.

However, a major barrier to the private sector electing to develop purpose built rental
properties continues to be taxation disincentives implemented by the federal government in
1972. The current policy essentially moves anyone interested in developing a multi-unit
residential or commercial building toward condominiums, hotels or warehouses and away from
rental properties. The City of Victoria needs to add its voice to those of the many organizations
that continue to press the federal government to remove these irrelevant barriers and tax all
multi-unit developments equally and equitably.

That’s $2.11 per litre in metric calculation.

This article is American, and thus doesn’t completely match our situation up north, but there’s still a ton of food for thought in this oped by Chris Pummer.

You’ll note that even though I may not specifically state that my platform is to confront the issue of peak oil, and it isn’t completely, it does incorporate many of the solutions to this enormous problem: more complete, diverse, vibrant communities with more transportation alternatives to the car.

Shouldn’t we be technologically advanced enough here in the 21st Century to quit siphoning off the pus of the Earth? Regardless whether you believe global warming is threatening the planet’s future, you must admit crude is passé.

Americans should be celebrating rather than shuddering over the arrival of $4-a-gallon gasoline. We lived on cheap gas too long, failed to innovate and now face the consequences of competing for a finite resource amid fast-expanding global demand.

A further price rise as in Europe to $8 a gallon — or $200 and more to fill a large SUV’s tank — would be a catalyst for economic, political and social change of profound national and global impact. We could face an economic squeeze, but it would be the pain before the gain.

The U.S. economy absorbed a tripling in gas prices in the last six years without falling into recession, at least through March. Ravenous demand from China and India could see prices further double in the next few years — and jumpstart the overdue process of weaning ourselves off fossil fuels.

Consider the world of good that would come of pricing crude oil and gasoline at levels that would strain our finances as much as they’re straining international relations and the planet’s long-term health:

1. RIP for the internal-combustion engine

They may contain computer chips, but the power source for today’s cars is little different than that which drove the first Model T 100 years ago. That we’re still harnessed to this antiquated technology is testament to Big Oil’s influence in Washington and success in squelching advances in fuel efficiency and alternative energy.

Given our achievement in getting a giant mainframe’s computing power into a handheld device in just a few decades, we should be able to do likewise with these dirty, little rolling power plants that served us well but are overdue for the scrap heap of history.

2. Economic stimulus

Necessity being the mother of invention, $8 gas would trigger all manner of investment sure to lead to groundbreaking advances. Job creation wouldn’t be limited to research labs; it would rapidly spill over into lucrative manufacturing jobs that could help restore America’s industrial base and make us a world leader in a critical realm.

The most groundbreaking discoveries might still be 25 or more years off, but we won’t see massive public and corporate funding of research initiatives until escalating oil costs threaten our national security and global stability — a time that’s fast approaching.

3. Wither the Middle East’s clout

This region that’s contributed little to modern civilization exercises inordinate sway over the world because of its one significant contribution — crude extraction. Aside from ensuring Israel’s security, the U.S. would have virtually no strategic or business interest in this volatile, desolate region were it not for oil — and its radical element wouldn’t be able to demonize us as the exploiters of its people.

In the near term, breaking our dependence on Middle Eastern oil may well require the acceptance of drilling in the Alaskan wilderness — with the understanding that costly environmental protections could easily be built into the price of $8 gas.

4. Deflating oil potentates

On a similar note, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently gained a platform on the world stage because of their nations’ sudden oil wealth. Without it, they would face the difficult task of building fair and just economies and societies on some other basis.

How far would their message resonate — and how long would they even stay in power — if they were unable to buy off the temporary allegiance of their people with vast oil revenues?

5. Mass-transit development

Anyone accustomed to taking mass transit to work knows the joy of a car-free commute. Yet there have been few major additions or improvements to our mass-transit systems in the last 30 years because cheap gas kept us in our cars.

Confronted with $8 gas, millions of Americans would board buses, trains, ferries and bicycles and minimize the pollution, congestion and anxiety spawned by rush-hour traffic jams. More convenient routes and scheduling would accomplish that.

6. An antidote to sprawl

The recent housing boom sparked further development of antiseptic, strip-mall communities in distant outlying areas. Making 100-mile-plus roundtrip commutes costlier will spur construction of more space-efficient housing closer to city centers, including cluster developments to accommodate the millions of baby boomers who will no longer need their big empty-nest suburban homes.

Sure, there’s plenty of land left to develop across our fruited plains, but building more housing around city and town centers will enhance the sense of community lacking in cookie-cutter developments slapped up in the hinterlands.

7. Restoration of financial discipline

Far too many Americans live beyond their means and nowhere is that more apparent than with our car payments. Enabled by eager lenders, many middle-income families carry two monthly payments of $400 or more on $20,000-plus vehicles that consume upwards of $15,000 of their annual take-home pay factoring in insurance, maintenance and gas.

The sting of forking over $100 per fill-up would force all of us to look hard at how much of our precious income we blow on a transport vehicle that sits idle most of the time, and spur demand for the less-costly and more fuel-efficient small sedans and hatchbacks that Europeans have been driving for decades.

8. Easing global tensions

Unfortunately, we human beings aren’t so far evolved that we won’t resort to annihilating each other over energy resources. The existence of weapons of mass destruction aside, the present Iraq War could be the first of many sparked by competition for oil supplies.

Steep prices will not only chill demand in the U.S., they will more importantly slow China and India’s headlong rush to make the same mistakes we did in rapidly industrializing — like selling $2,500 Tata cars to countless millions of Indians with little concern for the environmental consequences. If we succeed in developing viable energy alternatives, they could be a key export in helping us improve our balance of trade with consumer-goods producers.

Additional considerations

Weaning ourselves off crude will hopefully be the crowning achievement that marks the progress of humankind in the 21st Century. With it may come development of oil-free products to replace the chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, fertilizers and pesticides that now consume 16% of the world’s crude-oil output and are likely culprits in fast-rising cancer rates.

By its very definition, oil is crude. It’s time we develop more refined energy sources and that will not happen without a cost-driven shift in demand.

[via MarketWatch]

The article made me think about teen’s opinions and how many people ignore them. Many teenagers have great ideas about what can be improved in our city because we are the ones that use the transportation systems and use most public places.

I say good for you Paul Hillsdon, I hope you make a positive difference for our society in the case that you become part of council. In my opinion, more teenagers should run and take this opportunity to improve the community. We are the ones who will be living in this world later in life so we should be doing something to help save it now.

Sarah Mohr

As a fellow teenager, I support 18-year-old Paul Hillsdon. I think he would be a great city council member, and his thoughts and ideas will be a great contribution to society.

Paul stated on his numerous blogs that he is running for city council because of personal frustrations. Transportation, housing and the environment are huge problems in Surrey and I believe that Paul can help make a difference. He could not only make an impact on the city, but also on the citizens. Being of the younger generation, he will have fresh ideas and be the voice of the youth. Because he is able to relate to the youth, he can help make changes that are wanted by the younger generation.

Although he may be inexperienced, there would be other members on the council that could work with him and elaborate on his ideas. He might not be the best or most important member, but he will provide the council with useful ideas.

If Paul Hillsdon gets elected in the upcoming November election, he will be the youngest person to ever hold a Surrey civic seat. Paul is running for a civic seat, and who knows how many youth he will inspire. I hope Paul gets elected, but it’s all up to the citizens.

Misha Sangha

Thanks for the support you two! You both hit the nail on the head - we are the ones who are going to inherit this city and world, and it’s our responsibility to step up to the plate and ensure our voices are heard today! 

Editorial Board - The Province - May 16

Talking of young people, it’s great to watch those who are trying to be part of the solution rather than the problem.

We’re referring here to the news that 18-year-old Surrey blogger Paul Hillsdon has decided to run for council in the civic elections in November.

The Grade 12 student believes Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts has done a lot of good things for the city — “but things could always be better.”

His platform focuses on the need for greener, more vibrant communities and for better public transit.

He has a big hill to climb, but we wish him well.

Roberta Graham - News1130 - May 15

A teenager in Surrey has some big plans for the future of his city. 18-year old Paul Hillsdon wants to run for council in November because he thinks Surrey is heading in the wrong direction.

Paul tells the Province newspaper his platform builds on the idea of sustainability and has four pillars, including the creation of a vibrant community and green spaces, more transportation options and sustainable development.

If he’s elected, he would be the youngest-ever councillor in Surrey.

Jennifer Saltman - The Province - May 15

A Surrey teen who thinks his city is heading in the wrong direction has decided to run for council in November.

If he’s elected, it’s believed 18-year-old blogger Paul Hillsdon would be the youngest-ever Surrey councillor.

“I think I have a lot of the leadership skills that are necessary for a position like this,” Hillsdon said.

“I have a lot of good ideas.”

Hillsdon’s platform builds on the idea of sustainability and has four pillars: sustainable development, green spaces, vibrant communities and transportation options.

A “green building strategy” would require a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) gold standard for all municipal buildings and encourage developers to green private developments.

Affordable housing is included in Hillsdon’s development plan.

His agenda for green spaces includes a “nature network strategy” covering the expansion, protection, enhancement and connection of green spaces.

To create vibrant communities, Hillsdon would encourage vitalized town centres, expand services for youths and seniors and improve communication between the city and residents.

Transit and transportation are close to Hillsdon’s heart, because he grew up in Cloverdale and used public transit regularly.

He would like to see attractive, effective bus facilities, an expanded cycling network, a rapid-transit plan, a progressive traffic-calming strategy and a green municipal fleet.

“A lot of the ideas in my platform are part of a larger public awareness,” Hillsdon said. “Sustainability is huge right now.”

Having looked at the city’s recent financial reports, Hillsdon said the projects would require a small tax increase, if that, and reallocation of existing funds.

“Most of my ideas are very minimal investments and, while not necessarily completely new, they’re cheap compared to most things,” he said.

Hillsdon is a Grade 12 student at the online school Surrey Connect, but because of his youth and background feels he is representative of a young, diverse community.

He also believes that, like many Surrey residents, he’s not being heard by city council.

“[Mayor] Dianne Watts has done a lot of good things for the city,” he said, “but things could always be better. Considering the power that [councillors] have, they don’t contribute enough in their positions.”

When asked about his chances in November, Hillsdon chuckled and said: “I’m optimistic. I wouldn’t put in all of this time if I didn’t think it was possible.”

His website is www.paulin08.com.